ELLSBURY - FIRESTARTER

While the offense had been floundering, and many people were hoping that Jacoby Ellsbury would return to the top of the lineup there were still a lot of people saying that he was flourishing in the bottom third of the order, and saying we were a better team with JD Drew as the leadoff hitter. I didn't believe that Ellsbury was any different of a hitter in the 6 hole as opposed to lead off, seeing as they moved him right after a 23 game hit streak, and that he seemed just as aggressive hitting 6th as 1st, so the only difference was he was getting fewer at bats in general, in addition to fewer at bats in which there were guys behind him to drive him in.
I was one that definitely wanted Ellsbury at the top of the order, and after a slow start since being moved back up there, Ellsbury has caught fire, and with that so has the rest of the Red Sox offense. In the last 10 games, Ellsbury has 9 multi-hit games, 12 Runs scored, 7 stolen bases and is hitting around .444, going 20/45...Since this hot streak started, the slumping Red Sox offense has come back to life, scoring, 3, 7, 2, 8, 8, 6, 8, 6, 4, and 18 runs. Which is 5.7 runs per game if you exclude the 18 run outburst, or 7 runs per game when it's included. People talk about on base percentage, and average like it is the only thing that matters for a lead off hitter, and then disregard the aspect of mental frustration. What I mean by this is the quality of pitches players receive behind basestealers is better, because even if a player doesn't steal a base, just the fact that he is out there is going to take a large amount of the pitchers focus away from executing his pitch, and put it on trying to keep the runner on base, 2: The type of pitch called for by the catcher, as many have said that even when you try not to, they will call for more fastballs because they don't want that runner to advance, so when you combine the fact that the pitcher is slightly less focused, with the increased probability of the easiest pitch to hit for most major league hitters, in addition to the fact that the baserunner may get himself into scoring position sooner, you are going to see averages, runs, and rbi totals increase for the batters following a speedster like ellsbury, a lot more than they would for an on-base guy like Drew (and that's about all JD has done since becoming a Red Sox, as his average and power output, along with his average defense are not even close to on par with his $14M annual salary)

With Ellsbury staying hot, and continuing to get on base, and steal at a rate rarely seen in major league history, as he is currently successful 85.7% of the time, stealing 48 bases in 56 attempts, including stealing 30 of his last 32, since May 26th, which is a rate of 93.75%, which has moved him into a tie with Carl Crawford for the most stolen bases in MLB, and 11 clear of the 3rd place guy, Michael Bourn. Ellsbury is already proving that he is the best baserunner the Red Sox organization has ever had, and with his combination of speed, defensive prowess, and intelligence running the bases, to accompany his ever improving patience and efficiency at the plate and what the Red Sox and Ellsbury expect to be an increase in power over the next year, we could be looking at the All-Star all world CF in Boston for the next 15 years, with an entire history book of records to rewrite.

With Ellsbury hitting and running, the Red Sox offense is poised to put up a lot of runs over the remaining two months of the season, and when you combine that with the addition of All-Start Victor Martinez, the 1-2 punch of Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester, and the hopeful return to form of Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox could be looking to make a run at a 3rd World series title in 6 years, and should have a lot of $$ to spend in the offseason due to low/reasonable contracts that dominate the Red Sox roster in order to reload anything we lose in this offseason, namely a 3rd baseman to fill in for the aging, and physically declining but still beloved Mike Lowell.

All-Star Game

Surprise surprise, the American League won the All-Star game again. 12-0-1 over the last 13 years leads to very little suspense come All-Star time, but atleast the games are becoming competitive again. This year the final was 4-3, with the MVP of the game, Carl Crawford, pulling back a Home Run from Brad Hawpe that would've been hit off the Pap. While this was dramatic, that was about the extent of the excitement from this years game. With 5 of the 7 runs being scored in the first 2 innings, mostly off poor fielding and broken bat flares, the next 7 innings blew by. The National league put together a two out rally getting 4 consecutive hits, none of which had any real power behind them, and added a strange bounce off Shane Victorino's back in order to score three runs. They then proceeded to record 18 consecutive outs, and would amass just 1 more hit the rest of the night. While the AL didn't fair that much better they were atleast getting people on base if they weren't scoring. The only positive from this years All-Star game is that is only last 2.5 hours, so the uneventful and non-allstar like play wasn't suffered through for a long time. This did lead to some questions though, as to which league would be better 1-9.

The American League would have to go something like this
1. Ichiro Suzuki - RF
2. Dustin Pedroia - 2B
3. Mark Teixera (Or Youk, or Morneau) - 1B
4. A-Rod - 3B
5. Miguel Cabrera (or PAPI) - DH
6. Joe Mauer - C
7. Josh Hamilton - CF
8. Carl Crawford - LF
9. Jason Barlett - SS

Pitcher:
Josh Beckett

Closer:
Pap

Pitcher could be any of a variety of pitchers including, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Jon Lester, and a bevvy of others. But based on Beckett's post season dominance outside of last year when he was hurt, if I have 1 game to win that's who I want on the mound. And I know Mariano would be most people's choice to close out the game, but at this point in their careers I'll take Pap. Mariano 4 years ago, I'd take Rivera.


While this is a pretty formidable lineup, the NL has what could be more dangerous.

1. Hanley Ramirez - SS
2. Chase Utley - 2B
3. Albert Pujols - 1B
4. Ryan Braun - RF
5. David Wright - 3B
6. Manny Ramirez - LF
7. Carlos Beltran - CF
8. Ryan Howard - DH
9. Yadier Molina

Pitcher:
Johan Santana

Closer:
K-Rod

While I do this giving the NL a DH although they don't have one, it was pretty easy to not put Ryan Howard at first base. These two team would go at it very close were these the actual rosters, but the disparity lies in depth. There are tons of studs in the American league that can play a variety of positions. There can be any of 3 or 4 players to man first base, all of whom are great defenders, which lies the 2nd disparity between the leagues. The defense on the American league side which conincides with the best lineup is far superior to that of the National League. Jason Bartlett is a much better defender than Han Ram, Ichiro is better than Braun, Crawford is exponentially better than manny, Mauer better than Molina, and based on errors and GG Dustin Pedroia is better than Chase Utley. While both leagues boast a group of stars I still see the American League being better than the National League with the difference being minimal at the top, but becoming more and more evident when depth of the league is taken into account.

BUT that's all just speculation for now, and the 2nd half of the season is almost underway, so it should all play out in the end, and hopefully it plays out with Larry Lucchino handing out World Series rings.

Home Run Derby

With the All-Star game comes All-Star game festivities...and that includes the Home Run Derby, the Old-Timer/Celebrity Softball game, and countles other activities not aired on National Television. Last night was the Home Run Derby, and Softball game, and I must say I didn't expect much from it, and yet was still unimpressed. You knew it wasn't going to be great when you saw Brandon Inge as a contestant, with the only two superstars being Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard. Noone stepped up and put on a show like Sosa in '02 and '04, Bobby Abreu in '05, David Wright in '06, Josh Hamilton in '08...it was about as exciting as a Nats - DBacks game. The only part that people thought they could get excited about was Albert Pujols being in it, at his home stadium, but Albert Pujols is a line drive hitter that just has obscene power which is not ideal for an event like this. He doesn't have that uppercut swing like Junior, or even Prince Fielder. In years past you have seen the players along side the field running around and being impressed themselves, where this year they were just kind of sitting because they felt they should, with no real excitement. Where's ARod (whom I loathe) or Ryan Braun? I don't care about the obscenely overrated Carlos Pena who's only on the team because his manager was allowed to fill a missing position (which was Pedroia, but Joe Maddon felt a first baseman would be a good replacement).
I hope the All-Star game tonight provides more entertainment than the events that took place last night, otherwise I may be falling asleep early, and looking forward to the 2nd half of the year a few hours earlier than previously planned. Let's hope the AL can get through the top of the NL order, because once they do it gets reasonably weak, and prime for another A.L. ass kicking, to go along with the 11-0-1 record the AL currently boasts over the last 12 years.

POLL: Who will win the All-Star game tonight?

American League
National League

RED SOX FIRST HALF

With the All-Star Break Upon us. an eventful first half of the season has come to an end (yes, I know it's been 88 games not 81). The Red Sox have finished their pre-break schedule with a 54-34 record, and a 3 game lead over the Yankees in the AL-East. While this all sounds great, it doesn't really show what the Red Sox have gone through, and somewhat leads to higher expectations than is should. While they have a great record at this point, and it's nice that we are 3 games up on the Yanks you have to look at a few anomolies from the first half. One is that the Red Sox haven't lost to the Yankees yet, which is the primary reason we are up at this point. The yanks are 5 games better than the Sox against the rest of baseball, but the Sox hold the 8-0 advantage in head to head; but can they really repeat that in the 2nd half? The Yankees bullpen has become much more dominant of late, and they are showing some serious signs of having a strong 2nd half of the season, while Tampa Bay has come on of late, though I don't think they're going to catch the Red Sox and Yankees, as the two just have to much depth.

Jason Bay leads the majors wtih 72 RBI, but after a Red Hot start his average has slipped all the way to .260, and when a player hits a lot of home runs early, or gets on a hot streak they can often start swinging for the fences more often leading to a drop off in the rest of their numbers, and eventually just lead to them being a lot less productive than prior to the power surge, and that appears to be happening to Jason over the last month or so, so the question is, can he turn that around in the 2nd half?

Third Base is another important factor in how the Red Sox will fare in the 2nd half. Is Mike Lowell going to come back after this stint on the DL and be able to play the rest of the season at a high level like he did for much of the first half, and if not how is that going to affect the team. Youk has been a better hitter throughout his career when playing first base as opposed to third for whatever reason, so if Mikey's not able to come back that hurts us defensively at 1st and third, and offensively at first and third.

The Lineup is another interesting factor to look at in regards to the Red Sox 2nd half success. Right now the Red Sox have J.D. Drew leading off with Dustin Pedroia, Youk, Papi, Jason Bay, and Jacoby Ellsbury following. While the idea originally was to get some high OBP guys at the front, and drop Ellsbury, I don't see how this has worked. We seem to be scoring a lot less since the lineup change (which coincidentally came shortly after Jason Bay started to cool down) and we're putting someone that is not hitting, or getting on base all the often at the top of the order. With Mike Lowell back, our line should look like 1. JE 2. DP 3. KY 4. DO 5. JB 6. JD 7. ML 8. JV 9. NG...This is the lineup that should provide the most for the Red Sox.

After looking at a few factors that could be negative projectors for the 2nd half, there are also a lot of things that provide a lot of positives in the 2nd half. Starting with the pitching Josh Beckett started the year very slowly, as did Jon Lester, but both have since become what we had hoped at the beginning of the year, which is just dominant forces on the mound. Clay Buckholz has been almost untouchable in AAA ball, and is making his debut this Friday, which if he could pitch the way I and most Sox fans hope and expect, could provide us that great #3 which is needed in MLB. I know we have Wake who had a good first half, but I don't see him winning another 11 in the 2nd half, along with Smoltz and Penny, but Buckholz has more ability than any of them as long as he can keep his head right. So our pitching in the 2nd half could just be dominant, which would be great...

With that said I think the most important factor of the Red Sox continued 2nd half dominance is the reemergence of Big Papi. Everyone was writing him off, saying he was to old, couldn't hit anymore, and would be irrelevant the rest of the year, to which he kept saying don't forget about me, and BOY WAS HE RIGHT. He had 1 Home Run over the first 2 months of the season, and yet he's still going into the All-Star Break with 12 Home Runs, and 47RBI. If David can just do what he's been doing the last 6 weeks, and the last 6 years, then he's going to end the season with 25-30 HR's, 110RBI, and will be the nightmare in the middle of the lineup that we have grown accustomed to over the years. His presence in the middle of that lineup makes everyone around him better.

On the Whole I see the Red Sox winning the AL East with around 95 wins, but only 1 or 2 games in front of the Yankees, leading to yet another epic ALCS between Boston and NY, only this time it's going to be the Red Sox with the home field advantage and not the Yankees.

Poll: Who will Win the AL East?
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jays