Monday, August 3, 2009

ELLSBURY - FIRESTARTER

While the offense had been floundering, and many people were hoping that Jacoby Ellsbury would return to the top of the lineup there were still a lot of people saying that he was flourishing in the bottom third of the order, and saying we were a better team with JD Drew as the leadoff hitter. I didn't believe that Ellsbury was any different of a hitter in the 6 hole as opposed to lead off, seeing as they moved him right after a 23 game hit streak, and that he seemed just as aggressive hitting 6th as 1st, so the only difference was he was getting fewer at bats in general, in addition to fewer at bats in which there were guys behind him to drive him in.
I was one that definitely wanted Ellsbury at the top of the order, and after a slow start since being moved back up there, Ellsbury has caught fire, and with that so has the rest of the Red Sox offense. In the last 10 games, Ellsbury has 9 multi-hit games, 12 Runs scored, 7 stolen bases and is hitting around .444, going 20/45...Since this hot streak started, the slumping Red Sox offense has come back to life, scoring, 3, 7, 2, 8, 8, 6, 8, 6, 4, and 18 runs. Which is 5.7 runs per game if you exclude the 18 run outburst, or 7 runs per game when it's included. People talk about on base percentage, and average like it is the only thing that matters for a lead off hitter, and then disregard the aspect of mental frustration. What I mean by this is the quality of pitches players receive behind basestealers is better, because even if a player doesn't steal a base, just the fact that he is out there is going to take a large amount of the pitchers focus away from executing his pitch, and put it on trying to keep the runner on base, 2: The type of pitch called for by the catcher, as many have said that even when you try not to, they will call for more fastballs because they don't want that runner to advance, so when you combine the fact that the pitcher is slightly less focused, with the increased probability of the easiest pitch to hit for most major league hitters, in addition to the fact that the baserunner may get himself into scoring position sooner, you are going to see averages, runs, and rbi totals increase for the batters following a speedster like ellsbury, a lot more than they would for an on-base guy like Drew (and that's about all JD has done since becoming a Red Sox, as his average and power output, along with his average defense are not even close to on par with his $14M annual salary)

With Ellsbury staying hot, and continuing to get on base, and steal at a rate rarely seen in major league history, as he is currently successful 85.7% of the time, stealing 48 bases in 56 attempts, including stealing 30 of his last 32, since May 26th, which is a rate of 93.75%, which has moved him into a tie with Carl Crawford for the most stolen bases in MLB, and 11 clear of the 3rd place guy, Michael Bourn. Ellsbury is already proving that he is the best baserunner the Red Sox organization has ever had, and with his combination of speed, defensive prowess, and intelligence running the bases, to accompany his ever improving patience and efficiency at the plate and what the Red Sox and Ellsbury expect to be an increase in power over the next year, we could be looking at the All-Star all world CF in Boston for the next 15 years, with an entire history book of records to rewrite.

With Ellsbury hitting and running, the Red Sox offense is poised to put up a lot of runs over the remaining two months of the season, and when you combine that with the addition of All-Start Victor Martinez, the 1-2 punch of Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester, and the hopeful return to form of Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox could be looking to make a run at a 3rd World series title in 6 years, and should have a lot of $$ to spend in the offseason due to low/reasonable contracts that dominate the Red Sox roster in order to reload anything we lose in this offseason, namely a 3rd baseman to fill in for the aging, and physically declining but still beloved Mike Lowell.