RED SOX FIRST HALF

With the All-Star Break Upon us. an eventful first half of the season has come to an end (yes, I know it's been 88 games not 81). The Red Sox have finished their pre-break schedule with a 54-34 record, and a 3 game lead over the Yankees in the AL-East. While this all sounds great, it doesn't really show what the Red Sox have gone through, and somewhat leads to higher expectations than is should. While they have a great record at this point, and it's nice that we are 3 games up on the Yanks you have to look at a few anomolies from the first half. One is that the Red Sox haven't lost to the Yankees yet, which is the primary reason we are up at this point. The yanks are 5 games better than the Sox against the rest of baseball, but the Sox hold the 8-0 advantage in head to head; but can they really repeat that in the 2nd half? The Yankees bullpen has become much more dominant of late, and they are showing some serious signs of having a strong 2nd half of the season, while Tampa Bay has come on of late, though I don't think they're going to catch the Red Sox and Yankees, as the two just have to much depth.

Jason Bay leads the majors wtih 72 RBI, but after a Red Hot start his average has slipped all the way to .260, and when a player hits a lot of home runs early, or gets on a hot streak they can often start swinging for the fences more often leading to a drop off in the rest of their numbers, and eventually just lead to them being a lot less productive than prior to the power surge, and that appears to be happening to Jason over the last month or so, so the question is, can he turn that around in the 2nd half?

Third Base is another important factor in how the Red Sox will fare in the 2nd half. Is Mike Lowell going to come back after this stint on the DL and be able to play the rest of the season at a high level like he did for much of the first half, and if not how is that going to affect the team. Youk has been a better hitter throughout his career when playing first base as opposed to third for whatever reason, so if Mikey's not able to come back that hurts us defensively at 1st and third, and offensively at first and third.

The Lineup is another interesting factor to look at in regards to the Red Sox 2nd half success. Right now the Red Sox have J.D. Drew leading off with Dustin Pedroia, Youk, Papi, Jason Bay, and Jacoby Ellsbury following. While the idea originally was to get some high OBP guys at the front, and drop Ellsbury, I don't see how this has worked. We seem to be scoring a lot less since the lineup change (which coincidentally came shortly after Jason Bay started to cool down) and we're putting someone that is not hitting, or getting on base all the often at the top of the order. With Mike Lowell back, our line should look like 1. JE 2. DP 3. KY 4. DO 5. JB 6. JD 7. ML 8. JV 9. NG...This is the lineup that should provide the most for the Red Sox.

After looking at a few factors that could be negative projectors for the 2nd half, there are also a lot of things that provide a lot of positives in the 2nd half. Starting with the pitching Josh Beckett started the year very slowly, as did Jon Lester, but both have since become what we had hoped at the beginning of the year, which is just dominant forces on the mound. Clay Buckholz has been almost untouchable in AAA ball, and is making his debut this Friday, which if he could pitch the way I and most Sox fans hope and expect, could provide us that great #3 which is needed in MLB. I know we have Wake who had a good first half, but I don't see him winning another 11 in the 2nd half, along with Smoltz and Penny, but Buckholz has more ability than any of them as long as he can keep his head right. So our pitching in the 2nd half could just be dominant, which would be great...

With that said I think the most important factor of the Red Sox continued 2nd half dominance is the reemergence of Big Papi. Everyone was writing him off, saying he was to old, couldn't hit anymore, and would be irrelevant the rest of the year, to which he kept saying don't forget about me, and BOY WAS HE RIGHT. He had 1 Home Run over the first 2 months of the season, and yet he's still going into the All-Star Break with 12 Home Runs, and 47RBI. If David can just do what he's been doing the last 6 weeks, and the last 6 years, then he's going to end the season with 25-30 HR's, 110RBI, and will be the nightmare in the middle of the lineup that we have grown accustomed to over the years. His presence in the middle of that lineup makes everyone around him better.

On the Whole I see the Red Sox winning the AL East with around 95 wins, but only 1 or 2 games in front of the Yankees, leading to yet another epic ALCS between Boston and NY, only this time it's going to be the Red Sox with the home field advantage and not the Yankees.

Poll: Who will Win the AL East?
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jays